Lewis Hamilton’s heart will sink when he hears the ‘paddock chatter’ about Ferrari’s 2025 chances

Lewis Hamilton sounded optimistic when he appeared in the F1 press conference midway through the final day of testing. But his mood may have changed by the chequered flag.

Hamilton said he was entering the season with ‘the most positive feeling I’ve had in a long time’. But that preceded a session where the Ferrari looked neither compliant nor fast.

The 40-year-old was the sixth-fastest in Friday’s combined times, but the onboard footage was the most worrying. He was having to wrestle the car as he did at Mercedes last year.

On day two, Karun Chandhok had remarked that Hamilton could ‘manipulate’ the Ferrari – a welcome sight for his fans. But the SF-25 must be consistently fast – it perhaps didn’t take well to the increase in temperatures – to win the championship.

Hamilton was hoping to complete a race simulation under the lights but he ended up back in the garage behind the Ferrari covers. The team put this down to an undisclosed technical issue.

F1 paddock experts have tried to predict the pecking order based on the data and observations they’ve gathered in testing. And it makes for concerning reading for Hamilton and the Tifosi.

F1 paddock thinks Mercedes are ahead of Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari after testing

The 1-10 predictions need to be viewed with caution. First and foremost, there are still two weeks remaining before the Australian Grand Prix, giving the teams time to fine-tune their cars or add upgrades.

Second, it’s a long season, so even if a team starts on the backfoot, they have time to recover. It’s worth remembering that McLaren were 99 points behind Red Bull after five races last year and still won the title.

And third, the ‘paddock consensus’ may simply be wrong. At the moment, though, it places McLaren at the front, with Red Bull second and Mercedes third.

According to Planet F1’s Thomas Maher, the ‘paddock chatter’ is that Ferrari are only fourth ahead of midfield duo Alpine and Williams. Hamilton’s heart will sink when he sees that he may be behind his old team.

The ‘horrid’ clue about Ferrari’s true pace before Australian Grand Prix?

Hamilton’s move from McLaren to Mercedes was a masterstroke. His old team were about to enter a decline, whereas the Silver Arrows were on the precipice of domination following the 2014 regulation changes. Will his gamble backfire this time?

It should be said that George Russell has cast doubt on Mercedes’ title chances. It’s still unlikely, if they are third fastest, that Hamilton has spurned a title shot this year by walking away.

Toto Wolff said Hamilton was ‘very impressive’ on day two, so perhaps there was some recency bias behind the projections on Friday. Still, a team would rather start a test slowly and finish strong.

Alex Brundle said the Ferrari’s handling looked ‘horrid’ with Hamilton at the wheel in the last four hours. Perhaps he’s learned exactly which set-up direction he must avoid this year.