After the electric car revolution, Elon Musk is looking to the world to see his vision of a “shining city on a hill.”
The WSJ reports that Elon Musk’s Tesla is in one of its worst sales periods in history. The company just announced that global sales fell 13.5% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. Previously, the first quarter also recorded a 13% decline.
Meanwhile, rivals like General Motors and BYD (China) are continuously launching high-tech electric vehicles, taking market share from Tesla. The US Congress is also preparing to cut tax incentives for electric vehicles, as consumers return to traditional gasoline cars.
“I encourage people to not focus on the potholes in front of them, but look up at the shining city on the hill,” Elon Musk told investors in April.
On that “hilltop,” Musk is envisioning a future of self-driving cars and humanoid robots. Although about 75% of Tesla’s $100 billion in revenue by 2024 will come from selling cars, Musk says he has shifted his focus to self-driving technology and robotics.
Musk has frozen plans for a low-cost $25,000 “Model 2.” Asked if the car would be revived, he said Tesla is now focusing on a version without a steering wheel and pedals — called the Cybercab.
“Launching a traditional $25,000 car right now is pointless and goes against our vision,” Musk said.
Now, the stainless steel Cybertruck — the only new product in the past five years — has failed to meet sales expectations. Earlier this year, Tesla said it was focusing on cutting prices on existing models.
“Monthly installment payments are the biggest deciding factor when consumers choose our vehicles,” said Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering.
ROBOT DREAM
Despite the fact that sales are falling, Tesla’s market value is still close to $1,000 billion, largely thanks to the belief in Musk’s vision of the future.
According to many Wall Street experts, the car business is only worth $50-100 per share, while the actual price is closer to $300.
“Most investors value Tesla’s core car business at around $50–$100 per share,” said Adam Jonas, an expert at Morgan Stanley.
However, the business results paint a less optimistic picture: Tesla’s profits fell 71% in the first quarter. The $409 million profit was only achieved by selling $595 million in emissions credits to other carmakers.
The second quarter financial report (July 23) is expected to show a further 10% drop in sales and a nearly 20% drop in profits.
The situation is getting worse as global demand for electric vehicles declines. In the US, EV sales fell 7% in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive estimates. Ford, Hyundai, and Kia all saw declines, while GM saw a surge thanks to the Cadillac Escalade and Chevrolet Equinox EVs.
The Tesla brand has also been affected by Elon Musk’s political activities, causing customers from many political factions to turn away.
In late May, Musk stepped down from his role in the Government Effectiveness Unit. At the same time, Tesla’s board of directors reached out to headhunters, with some members wanting Musk to spend more time with the company. However, chairwoman Robyn Denholm said she still had faith in Musk and his long-term growth plans.
Still, Elon Musk is unlikely to stay out of politics. He has spent nearly $300 million to support President Trump’s campaign. The two have recently sparred publicly on social media.
Last week, Tesla parted ways with Omead Afshar — Musk’s close right-hand man in charge of sales and manufacturing in the US and Europe. Afshar’s role will be partly taken over by Tom Zhu, who has been in China helping to compete in the Asian market.
A few weeks earlier, Milan Kovac, head of the Optimus robot program, also left the company, citing “spending time with family abroad.”
While the electric car business struggles, Musk is betting big on a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, which launched on June 22. Photos show Musk celebrating with the robotaxi team at a table full of pizza boxes and Diet Coke.
Musk is not a pioneer in this space, however — Alphabet’s rival Waymo already operates hundreds of robotaxi in several US cities.
Tesla believes robotaxis could add $5 trillion to $10 trillion to its market value. Last week, Tesla demonstrated a Model Y driving itself from the factory to a customer’s home, a distance of about 30 minutes.
Musk predicts that by the end of 2026, hundreds of thousands of fully autonomous Teslas will be on American roads, many of which will be private cars rented out by owners like Uber or Airbnb.
Tesla’s latest impact report presents a vision of the future: A “Richard Scarry” city with self-driving cars on the move, solar power everywhere, and Optimus robots pushing strollers, watering plants, and carrying groceries for the elderly.
“We believe that automation will save lives, time and money, and improve the quality of life for everyone,” the report said.
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