The US space industry is increasingly dependent on this company.

The US space industry is increasingly dependent on SpaceX, the company founded by billionaire Elon Musk. From a name that was skeptical in its early years, SpaceX has become an irreplaceable pillar of the country in all areas related to space – from commercial transportation, scientific research, to national security.

In fact, SpaceX will handle more than 80% of U.S. orbital launches in 2024. That means the vast majority of satellites, crews, and military missions rely on the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy. If SpaceX were to be down for even a month, it would severely disrupt the schedules of NASA, the Pentagon, and U.S. tech companies.

The biggest success that has put SpaceX in the driver’s seat is the technology of rocket reuse—something that traditional defense companies have failed to do for decades. The ability to safely land boosters and relaunch them within days has allowed the company to dramatically reduce costs, increase launch rates to unprecedented levels, and quickly outpace its competitors.

SpaceX not only transports commercial satellites, but also plays a key role in US national security. Since 2019, the company has carried out about 70% of launches serving national security purposes, including military satellites, missile warning systems, and strategic contracts with the US Space Force. Moreover, the Starlink satellite network with more than 7,000 devices operating in orbit has become a tool not only for global internet connection but also for modern warfare.

NASA cannot stay out of the spiral of dependence. Since the Space Shuttle program was discontinued, the US has relied on Russia’s Soyuz rockets to transport astronauts to the International Space Station. SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has completely solved this problem, becoming the US’s sole means of transporting astronauts for many years.

NASA awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract, called Commercial Resupply Services, in 2008, just months after the first successful flight of the Falcon 1. The contract called for SpaceX to use its new Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft to ferry cargo and supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) over the course of 12 missions. In 2014, SpaceX won another $2.6 billion NASA contract to develop and operate vehicles to shuttle astronauts to and from the International Space Station.

However, absolute dependence raises big questions about power. Elon Musk has repeatedly been entangled in conflicts with American politicians. As the conflict between him and President Donald Trump escalated, the risk of tens of billions of dollars in contracts with the Pentagon being affected became a hot topic. The international press commented that the fact that an individual could affect national space security was unprecedented in history and could be considered a warning to the US government.

“The space ecosystem is changing, really because of SpaceX,” Garver said. “The lower cost of access to space is making it possible for us to dream. It’s created a community of companies around the world that can now access space.”

What makes SpaceX special is its ability to differentiate itself from its competitors. Compared to Blue Origin, the company founded by Jeff Bezos, the most obvious difference is the pace and practicality. Blue Origin has been promising for years its New Glenn rocket—a project that was supposed to compete directly with the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy—but has been repeatedly delayed. SpaceX, meanwhile, has performed hundreds of safe launches, reused its rocket dozens of times, and maintained a pace that is almost weekly.

Boeing, one of the aerospace industry’s stalwarts, offers another contrast. Its Starliner spacecraft was supposed to rival Crew Dragon in ferrying American astronauts to the International Space Station, but technical glitches, cost overruns, and delays have left the program in a crisis of confidence. While SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has been regularly ferrying astronauts into orbit since 2020, Starliner will only have its first crewed flight in 2024 and still has reliability issues.

However, it is undeniable that SpaceX has brought the US back to the forefront of the space race. The company’s launch frequency reached a record level, and at the same time opened a new era with the Starship project – a super-heavy rocket system capable of taking humans to the Moon and Mars. What the national space agency had to spend decades of research and hundreds of billions of dollars in budget to imagine, a private company has made a reality in less than two decades.

What is worrying is that while SpaceX has an almost absolute advantage, the market lacks competition. Companies like Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance have yet to make a corresponding breakthrough, while Boeing is struggling with technical issues. The Pentagon and the US Congress have repeatedly discussed the need to diversify contractors, but the reality is that no one can replace SpaceX. Experts from research institutes say that SpaceX’s dominance is both a strength and a weakness for the US.

In an era of increasingly fierce competition in space with the rise of China, having SpaceX is a clear advantage. But that advantage puts the US in a dilemma: taking advantage of SpaceX’s strength to lead, while finding ways to limit the risk of being “held by one individual or one business”. Many experts warn that the US needs to urgently reinvest in other competitors, build a reasonable monitoring mechanism, and develop a strong enough national space program to not be passive if SpaceX has an accident.