Gavin Newsom Dealt Polling Blow in ‘War’ With Donald Trump, GOP

California Governor Gavin Newsom was dealt a polling blow amid his redistricting war with Republicans after a survey found a majority of California voters support the state’s independent commission rather than allowing lawmakers to draw congressional boundaries.

Newsom’s office responded to that poll in a post to X, formerly Twitter, writing, “You mean the poll that tested what we are NOT doing (getting rid of the commission!)?? Do not be fooled by so called ‘experts’ who don’t even ask the right questions! There is STRONG support!”

A Newsom spokesperson pointed to that post when reached for comment by Newsweek Thursday afternoon.

Why It Matters

Newsom on Thursday urged California lawmakers to approve a ballot measure that would allow them to engage in mid-decade redistricting—but not reverse the state’s independent redistricting commission—in an effort to retaliate against Republicans in a redistricting “arms race.” Newsom said the measure would be temporary, with the commission resuming authority to redraw the state’s maps in the 2030 redistricting cycle.

Texas, with the support of President Donald Trump, is working to complete mid-decade redistricting as GOP lawmakers plan to eliminate up to five Democratic-held seats in the House of Representatives and thwart party gains in the midterms.

Other Republican states like Missouri and Florida have followed and are now considering redraws of their own. Democratic states like California are also moving to redraw their maps in retaliation, but many have independent commissions or other laws that make it difficult to craft mid-decade redraws.

If Republican states are successful, they could net several seats through redistricting ahead of the midterms and enable the GOP to sustain House majority. The extent to which Democratic states can redraw their own maps could be decisive in the election results.

What To Know

A new poll from Politico and the Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research found that most Californians would support keeping the independent redistricting, marking a potential public opinion hurdle for Newsom and Democrats.

Sixty-four percent of California voters support keeping the commission, while only 36 percent support returning redistricting authority to the state legislature, according to the poll. It surveyed 1,445 registered voters from July 28 to August 12.

California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference in Los Angeles on August 14. Mario Tama/Getty Images
Among Democrats, 61 percent of respondents said they supported keeping the independent commission. For comparison, 66 percent of Republicans and 72 percent of independents echoed that sentiment.

During the news conference on Thursday, Newsom also said that the temporary measure would affirm California’s support for both nationalized redistricting reform and the state’s commission.

“We expect that the legislature will move quickly and anticipate by the end of next week that they will complete that work. The maps will present themselves in the next few years,” Newsom said.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-212 advantage in the House of Representatives, and Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of retaking chamber majority in November 2026, particularly if Trump’s approval ratings continue to sour.

Typically, new maps are only drawn once per decade after completion of the U.S. Census, barring any legal challenges that end in a court-mandated redraw.

Texas’ efforts to redraw the map kicked off the nationwide “arms race,” and has prompted calls from other Democratic-led states like Illinois, Maryland and New York to eliminate Republican districts in return.

What People Are Saying

Newsom also said during the news conference: “We anticipate these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas. This does not go forward, I want to remind everybody, unless one of these other states move forward. There’s still an exit ramp.”

Pollster Jack Citrin told Politico: “It’s not surprising, in the sense that California has voted twice for this independent review commission not all that long ago.”

Representative Kevin Kiley, a California Republican, wrote on X: “Newsom’s team helpfully points out that the poll showing overwhelming opposition to his redistricting sham did not include the fraudulent wording he plans to present voters.”

What Happens Next

California Democrats plan to unveil proposed new congressional maps by the end of next week and launch a voter-facing campaign tied to a constitutional amendment that would make any legislature-approved maps temporary for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 cycles, Newsom said.