Billionaire Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party in the US, but this idea faces many challenges.

In a post on social media platform X on July 5, billionaire Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, said he was forming a new political party, which he called the “American Party.”

“Today, the American Party was formed to give you back your freedom,” Musk said, citing a poll he had previously posted on X.

Ambition to form a new party

Elon Musk was born in South Africa but became a naturalized US citizen in 2002. He has taken on an increasingly prominent role in US politics through his partnership with President Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. He has poured money into the Republican presidential candidate’s campaign and used his social media platform, X, to promote Mr. Trump.

However, Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump have had a public spat since the tech mogul left the federal government. Elon Musk previously led an effort to cut “waste, fraud, and abuse” through the Office of Government Efficiency (DOGE), earning praise from Trump.

Although Musk has since backed off some of his accusations and toned down his attacks on Trump, the tech billionaire has stuck to his idea that America needs a new political party.

Although American politics essentially operates on a two-party system, third-party presidential candidates are allowed to get their names on the ballot in all 50 states. All states require a certain number of signatures, which vary by state, to support a presidential candidate.

Third-party candidates need to mount a large-scale political campaign to gain the necessary support and truly gain a foothold as a party in the race against the “big two” Democrats and Republicans.

Elon Musk’s Expectations

Billionaire Elon Musk posted a poll on July 4, writing: “Independence Day is the perfect time to ask whether you want to break away from the two-party (some would say one-party) system! Should we create an American Party?”

By the afternoon of July 5, he had closed the poll, receiving nearly 1.25 million responses, of which 65.4% said “yes.”

After seeing the poll results, Elon Musk conducted a new poll, writing: “By a 2-to-1 margin, you want a new political party and you will have one.”

He also reposted a cartoon of a two-headed snake, alluding to the belief among some Americans that despite having a two-party political system, little has actually changed between the Democrats and Republicans in power.

As a foreign-born American citizen, Musk cannot run for president. However, he can fund other candidates, which he can do with a third party.

The tech billionaire has said that if he were to form a new party, he would focus on winning two or three Senate seats and eight to 10 House seats to influence legislation.

“With such a razor-thin legislative margin, that would be enough to act as a tiebreaker vote on controversial bills, ensuring that they reflect the true will of the people,” Musk said.

Public Support

Musk appears to have considerable support for an ambitious political project.

A survey conducted by Quantus Insights from June 30 to July 2 among 1,000 registered voters found that 40% of respondents — including many Republicans — said they would consider voting for a third party backed by Musk over traditional Republican or Democratic candidates.

Quantus Insights wrote on X that the survey was designed to gauge public support for Musk’s political party, but noted that such surveys have always received good feedback. In 2023, 63% of Americans surveyed supported a third party, the highest in Gallup’s 20-year trend.

However, there are also significant doubts about whether a third party can actually have a significant impact on the US political system. Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, has acknowledged that there are “a number of structural barriers to establishing and sustaining a viable third party” in the US.

Before Elon Musk and Quantus Insights conducted the survey, a separate survey released by YouGov on June 18 found that 46% of 3,118 US adults surveyed believed that a third party was necessary in the current US political climate, with 47% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans supporting a third party.

How likely is it?

A truly competitive third party is expected to overturn more than a century of Democratic and Republican dominance at all levels of government in the United States. However, few have done so, despite the dozens of small parties that have operated across the country for decades.

The Libertarian Party, founded in 1971, is the third-largest party in the United States. Advocating for free markets, small government, and individual liberties, it had its best presidential performance in 2016 with candidate Gary Johnson, who won 3.27 percent of the national vote.

But that is far from the tens of millions of votes needed to win the White House, a governorship, or even a seat in a state legislature.

The Green Party, another long-standing party, also has candidates in state and federal races. Like the Libertarian Party, it also has no seats in government.

Some are skeptical about the success of a third party in the US.

Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, said that “most voters tend to be loyal to their major party, leaving third parties without the funding and organizational resources to make significant progress”.

According to expert Madden, the large middle class of American voters is still the main “battlefield” for winning or losing elections, but they are unlikely to support a third party.

Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, also commented that “third parties do not tend to last long in US politics”.

A study by US political scientists in May 2024 found that “disaffected partisans,” who are Republicans and Democrats who are dissatisfied with their own party, are less likely to vote for a more moderate third option.

The US political system

The essence of the US political system is the “winner takes all” principle through the widespread use of a “first-past-the-post” voting system. This gives victory to the candidates with the most votes, almost always Republicans or Democrats.

There are other factors that hinder the success of third parties, according to Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University in the US.

Tamas said that it is essential for a third party to tap into public dissatisfaction, a large number of people who are dissatisfied with current political options, and build a grassroots movement.

“One of the biggest problems with emerging parties is that they don’t really tap into that discontent,” Tamas said. Instead, emerging parties “tend to be more vague and not really focused on that strong need for change.”

Finance also determines the success of parties.

Parties in the US spend billions of dollars to put their candidates in office. Nearly $16 billion has been spent on congressional and presidential races in 2024, according to the donation watchdog OpenSecrets.

Billionaire Elon Musk himself is the biggest donor in the 2023-24 election, having poured more than $291 million into Republicans in every race.

Massive campaign funds help parties buy advertising and campaign materials to raise awareness of candidates and win their votes. This doesn’t guarantee victory for either party, but it certainly contributes significantly.

“You have to spend money on things like ballot access and other things, but no third party has the money to compete with Republicans and Democrats in this way,” said Tamas.